The NFL Draft is a mere few hours away. Everyone has an opinion of where these talented young men will go in the draft. But I’ll try my best to give an educated guess.
Just to summarize, it’s a lot of trades. Teams don’t want to pick quarterbacks high and the deep but top-heavy wide receiver group will have teams wanting to jump up.
Meanwhile there are four quarterbacks in the first round. However, zero in the top-10. Here’s a look…
First pick overall: Jacksonville Jaguars — DE Travon Walker — Georgia
It’s been a lot made of what the Jacksonville Jaguars will do with the first overall pick. The Jaguars have their franchise quarterback, or at least the guy they believe is, in last year’s No. 1 pick Trevor Lawrence.
A month ago it seemed Michigan defensive end Aidan Hutchinson was a lock for the top pick. However, Georgia defensive end Travon Walker is a hot name to No. 1. With no quarterbacks to dangle to trade out the pick, the Jaguars ultimately land on Walker. Walker played “down the road” at Georgia. So, picking him is more appealing to a smaller Jaguars fan base than landing the Midwestern Hutchinson.
Remember who is the Jaguars GM, Trent Baalke. So expect the unexpected.
From there…
2. Detroit Lions – DE Aidan Hutchinson – MIchigan
A dream come true for both Hutchinson and the Lions. The Michigan kid stays in the state and plays for the hometown Lions. Detroit gets their guy without having the No. 1 overall pick. Thanks Baalke!
3. Houston Texans – OT Ikem Ekwonu – NC State
The Texans have two first-round picks. However, buzz is they want to trade out of No. 13. So they have to hit at No. 3. They’ll consider the next two highly touted defensive ends. But ultimately, with confidence in last year’s draft pick quarterback Davis Mills., getting him protection seems more ideal. Ekwonu answers the bell. His upside and versatility — being able to play tackle or guard — puts him ahead of fellow offensive tackle Evan Neal out of Alabama.
4. New York Jets — CB Ahmad “Sauce” Gardner — Cincinnati
Sauce Gardner is a premiere talent at cornerback. He has exceptional size for a defensive back and his fluid movement spells “lockdown corner”. The kid that didn’t give up a touchdown all throughout college, will be a perfect building back for the rebuilding Jets.
5. New York Giants — DE/ED Jermaine Johnson II — Florida State
Arguably the best pass rusher in the draft, Jermaine Johnson II, is surely the most complete. A Georgia-transfer, Johnson developed into a speedy pass rusher and solid edge setter to stop the run. The Giants will consider Oregon’s Kayvon Thibodeaux, but Johnson is the safer pick.
Trade No. 1…
After the top-5, No.6 is where we will see trade interest. It’s no secret the Carolina Panthers, who hold the sixth overall pick, are looking to trade back in the draft. They don’t have another pick until the fourth round. And they don’t want to pick their biggest need, quarterback, at No. 6 in such a down year for signal callers.
- Panthers trade out of the No. 6 pick to No. 12 with the Minnesota Vikings. The Vikings then use the pick to draft LSU CB Derek Stingley Jr.
7. New York Giants (from CHI) — OT Charles Cross — Mississippi State
Trade… No. 2
8. Baltimore Ravens (from ATL) — Edge Kayvon Thibodeaux — Oregon
After the debacle with pass rusher Za’Darius Smith, who agreed to a deal with the Ravens before reneging to sign with the Vikings, the Ravens have a need for an edge rusher. So with Thibodeaux still sitting at 8, the Ravens jump on the opportunity and trade with the Atlanta Falcons.
9. Seattle Seahawks — OT Evan Neal — Alabama
Spotlight Trade… Deebo Samuel
10. San Francisco 49ers (from NYJ) — WR Drake London — USC
The 49ers ultimately give in to star wide receiver Deebo Samuel’s demands and trade him to the Jets. As part of their returning package is the No. 10 pick. San Francisco moves Samuel and then replaces him right away with the first WR off the board, Drake London, a Mike Evans clone. Even if the Jets don’t land Samuel, they appear to love London as well, so this will be the spot he goes. Sorry Washington fans.
11. Washignton Commanders — WR Garrett Wilson — Ohio State
The Commanders have needs at wide receiver, Buffalo nickel, linebacker and cornerback. Washington has been linked to London and fellow Ohio State WR Chris Olave. And while Notre Dame safety Kyle Hamilton is enticing, the role they want him to play, Buffalo nickel, can be found later in the draft. With London off the board, you can’t pass up Wilson unless you trade back. And there’s about to be a run on WRs so cross that out.
12. Carolina Panthers (from MIN) — QB Kenny Pickett — Pittsburgh
Panthers get their quarterback and do so in a more valuable spot. The Panthers also get draft real estate in the trade with the Vikings. Malik Willis has more upside and is the better prospect. But Panthers head coach Matt Rhule is fighting for his job and Pickett is 24 years of age and more experienced with 49 starts in college.
Packers move up…
13. Green Bay Packers (from HOU) — WR Chris Olave — Ohio State
It’s a run on wide receivers. The Packers need one after Davante Adams was traded to the Las Vegas Packers. Therefore Green Bay will be forced to get out of character. The Texans want out of the No. 13 pick. The Packers have two first-round picks, and why not package one of them and go get a WR.
14. Atlanta Falcons (from BAL) — QB Malik Willis – Liberty
The Falcons probably are willing to draft Willis at No. 8. But sliding back to No. 14 gains more value. They also get additional compensation much like Carolina. Willis is the best QB in the draft, he will be. He has tons of potential and will get to learn inside Arthur Smith’s system and behind Marcus Mariota for a little while.
15. Philadelphia Eagles (from MIA) — S Kyle Hamilton -Notre Dame
Hamilton’s free fall ends at No. 15 with the Eagles picking the talented safety out of Notre Dame. Part of his slide has to do with the 4.56 40-time at the combine, the knee injury and the disputed 4.70s 40 at his pro day. But, reality is, he’s a safety and regardless of his talent, 15 makes much more sense.
16. New Orleans Saints (from PHI) — WR Jameson Williams — Alabama
Saints use their pre-draft trade from last month with the Eagles to get their WR of the future. In New Orleans he will get the luxury to recover from his torn ACL at the right pace before catching passes from Jameis Winston.
17. Los Angeles Chargers – OT Bernhard Raimann – Central Michigan
More protection for franchise quarterback Justin Herbert. Raimann on the right side and Rashawn Slater protecting the blindside at left tackle.. Sheesh.
18. Philadelphia Eagles (from NO) — LB Devin Lloyd –Utah
Lloyd is the best linebacker in the draft. Eagles cross two needs off with Hamilton at safety and Lloyd at linebacker.
19. New Orleans Saints — DT Jordan Davis — Georgia
Steelers trade back
20. Kansas City Chiefs (from PIT) — WR Jahan Dotson — Penn State
The Steelers miss out on Malik Willis at quarterback. Meanwhile, the Chiefs are looking to get in position to get the last of the “sure” wide receiver prospects. Therefore, the Steelers trade back to rethink or get value for the next best QB on the board. Meanwhile, the Chiefs land Dotson to help replace Tyreek Hill.
Winding down in the first round
21. New England Patriots — Edge George Karlaftis –Purdue
22. Houston Texans (from GB) — CB Trent McDuffie — Washington
23. Arizona Cardinals — C Tyler Linderbaum — Iowa
24. Dallas Cowboys — OT Tyler Smith — Tulsa
25. Buffalo Bills — WR Skyy Moore — Western Michigan
It’s just like Bill Belichick to stand pat and still get a Patriots guy… Texans need everything and get a corner to reset its defense… Cardinals add talent to offensive line… Cowboys get a versatile offensive lineman who can play either right tackle or guard… Bills get their Cole Beasley replacement in the slot.
26. Tennessee Titans — WR George Pickens — Georgia
27. Tampa Bay Buccaneers — OG Zion Johnson — Boston College
28. Green Bay Packers — CB Andrew Booth Jr. — Clemson
Pickens is soaring up the board after being a year removed from his ACL tear. Landing in Tennessee is a great fit to play alongside A.J. Brown and give the Titans protection with Brown’s contract request… The Buccaneers replace Alex Cappa at guard with Johnson… Meanwhile, the Packers address cornerback with a talent in Booth, who could have gone earlier if not for injury.
Final leg of the first round features more talent than the previous 10 picks
29. Pittsburgh Steelers (from KC) — QB Desmond Riddler — Cincinnati
Riddler to Pittsburgh is a great landing spot for the former CIncinnati QB. He’ll get to sit behind Mitchell Trubisky with the promise of him ultimately taking the reins as the starter either late next year or at the start of 2023.
30. Kansas City Chiefs — DI Devonte Wyatt — Georgia
Wyatt has a ton of red flags. Some NFL teams have taken him off their boards. But if he goes in the first, it’s most likely in the late 20s or early 30s. Kansas City has a reputation for reshaping players with red flags.
31. Cincinnati Bengals — LB Nakobe Dean — Georgia
Many believe Dean is the best linebacker in the draft. The Bengals have afforded themselves the luxury of taking the best player available after addressing its offensive line in free agency. Therefore, Dean sliding to No. 31 is great for the team.
32. Detroit Lions (from LAR) — QB Sam Howell — North Carolina
Here’s the fourth quarterback to be taken in the first round. Howell is intriguing with has arm strength that wows. He struggled early last season at UNC with a plethora of his weapons gone to the NFL. But he caught on as the season progressed.
The only way the Lions don’t take Howell here is if they believe he will be there at No. 34 when they pick with the No. 2 selection in the second round.
